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Probability Distribution in Casino Game Strategies

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What Part Does Probability Distribution Play in Casino Game Strategies?

Probability distribution is an aspect of casino game probabilities that most amateur gamblers won’t necessarily consider when betting online. However, by understanding the basics of how it works, you can put yourself in a better position to improve your casino game to win more frequently.

In this guide, we’ll explore how probability distribution factors affect casino game strategies.

Guide to using probability distribution to support casino game strategies

Understanding Probability Distribution

Probability distribution is a mathematical term used to define the possible outcomes of an event. In casino gambling, it can be used to determine the likelihood of various outcomes occurring on a bet.

Let’s look at a very basic example.

If you were to take a coin and toss it, it could land on either side. The probability of it landing on either side is 1. It is guaranteed to land on one side or the other. If you were to break that down into two outcomes, then it would land on either hands or tails. The probability distribution for heads would be 0.5 in 1 or 50%, and that’d be the same for tails.

Of course, that’s a very simplified way of looking at the concept. If you want to apply it to the gambling games found in crypto casinos, things are going to get a bit more complicated.

Four Types of Probability Distribution Explained

There are four main types of probability distribution that you may wish to familiarise yourself with, and each tells you a great deal about the possible outcomes of a bet. Of course, some are better suited to specific gambling games, more than others.

  • Uniform Distribution, like our coin bet example, is used when there is an equal chance of an outcome occurring.
  • Binomial Distribution works a little differently. There are two outcomes here as well, but one of them will result in a win, while the other refers to a loss.
  • Normal Probability Distribution is the term used to describe bell curve outcomes. A good example of this in play would be roulette, where some bets (outside bets) are more likely to land than others (inside bets).
  • Finally, we have Poisson Distribution. This refers to rare events occurring within a fixed timespan. An example might be winning a progressive jackpot before a period of time elapses.

Calculating Probability Distribution in Games with Random Elements

While probability distribution can help you work out how likely a bet is to land, there are, of course, elements in the online casino world that complicate the process. These are unknown or unpredictable variables, such as bluffing in poker or in slots, RNGs.

As they are used to ensure random outcomes in slot games, there isn’t much you can do to predict the outcome of a slot spin because of RNGs. However, even considering RNGs, it may still be possible (based on your mathematical skill) to work out hit rates for slots. This can be calculated by dividing the total number of winning combos by the total number of possible outcomes.

For instance, if there are twenty symbols on a reel in a three-reel slot, you can calculate 8,000 different outcomes (20x20x20). If there are then ten lines, you can divide that by the number of combos (10/8000) to result in a 0.125% chance of a specific combo landing.

Of course, some symbols appear more frequently than others, adding another element of randomness for you to deal with.

Understanding Probability Distribution: An Example

Slots, clearly, don’t represent the best way to showcase probability distribution to you. Roulette, on the other hand, is far simpler. As mentioned, roulette probability distribution follows a bell curve, known as Normal Distribution, like so:
Roulette features thirty-six pockets. Half of those will be reds or blacks, odds or evens, high or low. There’s also at least one zero (in European Roulette), taking the total number of outcomes to thirty-seven. The probability distribution of landing inside bets such as those is, therefore, 18 out of 37, or 48.65%. These would be the height of the aforementioned curve.

Inside bets, such as Corners (10.8%), Streets (8.1%), and Splits (5.47%), then descend down the sloping bell curve with increasing lower chances of success until they reach the end, a Straight-Up bet, with a 1:37 (2.7%) chance of success.

Can Volatility Be a Factor?

As you can see, probability distribution plays a role in determining many casino game strategies, as it leads you to bet one way or another. Volatility can also impact your game strategy, though. If a game is highly volatile, it is likely going to pay out big wins infrequently. Therefore, you must stay in the game as long as possible to bag prizes. You need a big balance to sustain losing streaks until you win. By contrast, low-variance games which pay frequently (but in smaller sums) are suitable for players with smaller budgets.

Volatility clearly affects your casino game strategy for managing your bankroll, and that, in turn, will affect how you decide to bet. Volatility and probability distribution are both linked to the strategy you choose to use when betting, so you’ll need to consider both.

How Probability Distribution Impacts Your Casino Game Strategies

Understanding probability distribution will help you gauge which is the most effective way to play, whether that’s a strategy you’ve worked on yourself or something predetermined, such as Basic Strategy. However, much like volatility, probability distribution certainly impacts your game strategies.

If you want to be successful, you must know how to put together your betting strategy, factoring in likely outcomes using your probability distribution data, coupled with good bankroll management so you don’t overspend.

Fortunately, you don’t necessarily have to do all the legwork yourself. The internet is awash with prefabbed probability distribution charts that you can literally lift straight off sites and start experimenting with in your game strategy.

Where Can You Practice Using Probability Distribution?

If you want to practice, there are plenty of options for where to play games. You’ll want a platform that offers high-quality, safe and trustworthy gaming. Check out the list below for some strong-performing operators.

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