Promo specifics not included in paste (match % assumed).
| Required wager | $800.00 (40× bonus only) |
|---|---|
| Spins needed at $0.20 | 4,000 |
| Expected loss to clear (drift model) | -$27.76 |
| Expected remaining after clear (EV) | $12.24 |
| Net vs deposit (EV) | -$7.76 |
| Break-even RTP needed | 97.50% |
| Punitive Index (WR × house edge) | 1.388 |
| Effective rollover vs deposit | 40.0× |
Audit Verdict: High friction
Under the standardized $20 baseline, this Blizz offer is modeled as a 40× bonus-only playthrough (≈ $800 wagering) on a $40 starting bankroll.
The drift model implies about $27.76 expected wagering loss, producing slightly negative net EV versus deposit (≈ -$7.76).
Simulation shows 44/100 clears, but multiple term frictions (withdrawal forfeiture, excluded games, and 0% contribution categories) can make real-world outcomes worse than the baseline model.
We simulate 2,000 bonus playthroughs using the stated RTP and stake to estimate bonus clearance probability and typical cashout outcomes per 100 players.
Simulation disclaimer: These rates are simulated estimates designed to be used as a decision aid, not a guarantee.
Also note: promo specifics were not included in the paste and the 100% match assumption may be wrong; if the true bonus size differs, required wagering and results change proportionally.
- Confirm the promo specifics: the match % / eligible games were not included in the pasted terms—this audit assumes a 100% match and 40× bonus-only WR.
- Contribution matters: slots can count (when eligible), but Live/Table/Video Poker/Other are listed as 0%—avoid them or wagering won’t progress.
- Withdrawal friction: withdrawals can forfeit bonus money and remaining free spins; don’t start unless you intend to complete the bonus run.
- Max-bet mechanics: wagering credit may be capped per bet (terms suggest progress per bet is capped at $1,000), so stay within any max-wager-per-bet rules.
- Expiry risk: the bonus expires in 30 days—low-volume play increases forfeiture risk.
- Eligibility risk: excluded-game lists can be huge—confirm your chosen slot is eligible before grinding.