FS ignored in math.
| Required wager (stated WR) | $2,400.00 (40× deposit+bonus) |
|---|---|
| Spins needed at $0.20 | 12,000 |
| Expected loss to clear (drift model) | -$83.28 |
| Expected remaining after clear (EV) | -$23.28 |
| Break-even RTP needed | 97.50% |
| Punitive Index (WR × house edge) | 1.39 |
| Effective rollover vs deposit | 80.0× |
Audit Verdict: Avoid
On the promo-valid baseline ($30 deposit), Rainbet locks a combined promo balance (deposit + bonus) behind a
$2,400 playthrough target. Under a 96.53% RTP assumption, the drift model projects an expected wagering loss of
about $83.28 to clear—more than the $60 starting bankroll—so EV is negative (≈ -$23.28 after clear).
Simulation shows only 20/100 players clear before bust, and friction is extreme due to strict max-bet logic, RTP/provider restrictions, and forfeiture rules.
Simulation (Monte Carlo)
We simulate bonus playthroughs using the stated RTP and stake to estimate bonus clearance probability and typical net outcomes per 100 players.
Simulation disclaimer: These are simulated estimates designed as a decision aid, not a guarantee—real results vary with volatility, RTP variance, and enforcement.
Player advice (actionable)
- Treat funds as locked: the offer is a sticky combined balance (deposit + bonus moved into promo balance) until wagering completes.
- Don’t withdraw early: early withdrawals forfeit bonuses (and typically bonus-linked winnings).
- Respect the max bet: max bet is 2% of your deposit — at $30 this is ≈ $0.60. Exceeding it can break eligibility.
- Mind game restrictions: avoid restricted providers (Hacksaw, Nolimit) and avoid any games with RTP > 97.40% while the promo is active.
- Separate FS logic: Sweet Bonanza free spins are separate (40× on FS winnings) and may be geo-restricted by Pragmatic—don’t mix FS value into the deposit-bonus EV.
- Reality check: the drift EV is negative and simulation shows 80% bust; this is why the audit rates it Avoid.